Padrão espaço-temporal de propagação da COVID-19 no Brasil

Artigo publicado na Science apontou o padrão de propagação da COVID-19 no Brasil.

In summary, our results highlight the fast spread of both cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Brazil, with distinct patterns and burden by state. They demonstrate that no single narrative explains the propagation of the virus across states in Brazil. Instead, layers of complex scenarios interweave, resulting in varied and concurrent COVID-19 epidemics across the country. First, Brazil is large and unequal, with disparities in quantity and quality of health resources (e.g., hospital beds, physicians), and income (e.g., an emergency cash transfer program started only in June 2020, and by November 41% of the households were receiving it). Second, a dense urban network that connects and influences municipalities through transportation, services, and business (26) was not fully interrupted during peaks in cases or deaths. Third, political alignment between governors and the president had a role in the timing and intensity of distancing measures (7), and polarization politicized the pandemic with consequences to adherence to control actions (27). Fourth, SARS-CoV-2 was circulating undetected in Brazil for more than a month (20), a result of the lack of well-structured genomic surveillance (28). Fifth, cities imposed and relaxed measures at different moments, based on distinct criteria, facilitating propagation (15). Our findings speak to those issues, but also show that some states were resilient, such as Ceará, while others that comparatively had more resources failed to contain the propagation of COVID-19, such as Rio de Janeiro.

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Without immediate containment, coordinated epidemiological and genomic surveillance measures, and an effort to vaccinate the largest number of people in the shortest possible time, the propagation of P1 will likely resemble the patterns here demonstrated, leading to unimaginable loss of lives. Failure to avoid this new round of propagation will facilitate the emergence of new VOCs, isolate Brazil as a threat to global health security, and lead to a completely avoidable humanitarian crisis.

Saiba mais em:

Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 spread in Brazil. Science. 14.04.2021

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/04/13/science.abh1558